Let's Be Frank

What's the purpose of the weekly NERDstats post? To look at the forward-facing metrics and see what they might tell us. You have thoughts on what the football has looked like (and what it might look like in games to come). I then go look at the NERDstats and tell you what the laptops think might happen.

Because laptops look at other things. The laptops look at Michigan vs. Iowa, see that Michigan had a 93% Postgame Win Expectancy, and treat the game, essentially, like Michigan came out on top. The things that will predict which teams might do good things and which teams might do bad things going forward are found in the box scores, not the scoreboard. If you've ever wondered how Vegas can get so close to the final margin in a game, it's formulas exactly like these. (And if you've ever wondered why these NERDstats shouldn't be used for playoff selection, they ignore that Iowa beat Michigan.)

So with one month of the season gone (and one defensive coordinator gone), let's take a very frank look at our NERDstats. Buckle up.

The IlliniBoard NERDstat Index

We'll start with the I-N-I this week. We pretty much have to. We've fallen like a rock and you're going to want to know why.