Let's All Go To The Lobby

That moment right there is the moment that has bothered me this week. I'm so glad Holly captured it in a photo. Mac Resetich jumps the route on third down. If the pass is there, it's a 99-yard pick six the other way. But that just so happens to be the one play the entire game where our defensive line gets a mitt on the ball and it's deflected down to the turf where he's not able to intercept it.

When you hear the "it's one of those seasons" quotes from Coach Bielema in a press conference, I think this is what he means. He's not saying "we'd be 5-0 if not for bad luck!" or anything of the sort. I think it's a "football can be so kind and then so cruel" kind of thing.

In 2024, I spent a lot of these NERDstat posts talking about how football had been kind. I don't even need to look it up - I can recite these from memory.

• In the Nebraska game that year, the 'Huskers had a field goal with 3:00 left to take the lead. They missed. We tried to drive into field goal range ourselves, stalled, and the game went to overtime (where we won). Had Nebraska made that kick, we lose.
• In the Purdue game that year – this was the "Purdue scored 46 points after halftime" game – the Illini were trailing by three and trying to get into field goal range with 30 seconds left. After a deep pass to Pat Bryant, we're almost in FG range but on the next play, Luke Altmyer is stripped of the ball, Purdue recovers, and Purdue wins. BUT WAIT. They review the play and Altmyer had the ball pinned between his hand and his thigh when his knee hit. No fumble. We hit the field goal and then win in overtime.
• In the Rutgers game that year, we tried a long field goal with 15 seconds left and missed. Rutgers wins. BUT WAIT. Rutgers had called a timeout before the snap. The field goal didn't count. We sent the offense back out and Pat Bryant scored (on fourth and 13) with three seconds left to win the game.

That's not even mentioning the muffed punt that we fell on in the Kansas game (or that Kansas somehow decided to throw it from deep in their own end with 30 seconds left before halftime and Xavier Scott picked it off and returned it for six). The football gods were smiling on us that season.

No, the next paragraph will not begin with "the football gods are not smiling on us this season" like you thought it would. They aren't, but it would be unfair to characterize this season that way. As you'll see from other NERDstats below, there are many other reasons we're 2-3. My point in starting this way is a "when it rains, it pours" point. The two Duke fumbles that could have been six the other way with a better bounce? The ONE TIME we finally tip a pass in the Purdue game we prevent our own pick six? We've regressed on the field AND the football gods are not smiling on us. First five games last season? Recovered 6 of 8 fumbles. First five games this season? Recovered 0 of 3 fumbles.

So I want to take a step back. I know it's not the bye week, but we all need to get out of our seats and head to the lobby. Let's see if they serve alcohol here and maybe chat about the NERDstats.

My Kingdom For Havoc + PPO

Let's begin here. I've written about the points thing before (you have to turn your yards into points at the end of those nice drives or they're meaningless). I've written about havoc before (the defense making a play on the ball be it a sack/tfl, tipped pass, forced fumble, etc).

Here's the dashboard from one of the sites I subscribe to which gives us an idea of where we stand right now. The rankings here are out of 138 FBS teams: