We Know What We're Doing But They're Better At Doing It

I don't have time to look up the study right now. I did a quick AI search and it gave me a chart so I'm just gonna go with that chart. The topic: how much college football has changed over the last few years. The specific topic: punting numbers falling drastically. The numbers my search just gave me are as follows:

Punts per team per season ten years ago: 61
Punts per team per season five years ago: 53
Punts per team per season this year (estimated # at season's end): 45

The game has changed. Efficiency is everything. Punts are way down. The number of drives are way down. "Fewer, more-efficient possessions" is now the name of the game.

Take fourth and two. Anywhere on the field, just take a fourth and two situation. It used to look like this:

Fourth and two on your side of the field: punt
Fourth and two anywhere in field goal range and yes, that includes at the two yard line: field goal attempt
Fourth and two between the 50 and maybe the 35: consider going for it?

Now teams will go for fourth and two at their own 44. Kickers know they're not getting the call when it's fourth and one at the 25 because that's now go-time. That one analytics guy who wrote all of the "should teams EVER punt?" articles 12 years ago has been proven mostly correct.

But it's not just punting. Play calling is different. Teams take fewer shots down the field. Interceptions have been drastically reduced across college football because teams learned how much they hurt so risky throws are avoided now. And since I chart interceptions every year for the same 120 teams, I can put numbers to this.

Interceptions in 2016: 1,341
Interceptions in 2021: 1,257
Interceptions in 2025: 1,198

This year, I guarantee it will be lower. Because so many college offenses have thrown out many of the risk/reward throws. "Get it out quick, throw it short, and throw it to a spot where there's very little chance of an interception" is the 2026 college offense.

I guess I shouldn't say "all" here. Jayshon Platt's QB at FAU threw 17 interceptions last year. The interception hasn't been eliminated. I'm just saying that a lot of teams are leaning heavily into the numbers now. And the numbers say "punt less, make fewer risky throws." I've spent a lot of time the last few seasons documenting how this staff is very smart about how they approach these things and we continue to see it take over college football.

The problem today? Ohio State was better at it. They beat us with an efficiency stick. Jeremiah Smith, yes, we'll get to him, but even putting him aside, they put on a clinic. A quick list: