NCAA Tournament I: The View From 30,000 feet

I’m flying somewhere over Indiana at 30,000 feet and the nervous energy is already flowing. Those who know me well might generously describe me as “energetic”. Less generously so as ”full on hyper”. When I’m traveling? That goes to 11.

For an 8:00 AM flight, I needed to be at the airport by 6:00 which meant out the door at 5:00 which meant wake up call at 4:15.

I was up at 3:20 - after trying to go to bed at 10:00 and not falling asleep until midnight.

I‘ve had all kinds of thoughts (basketball and otherwise) bouncing around in my head since late last night so I thought I might as well get this NCAA Tournament opening weekend rolling by writing them all down. Because no way am I falling asleep on this plane.

+In the spirit of being a good steward of the IlliniBoard.com travel budget (I mean we have a lot of basketball travel still left this month right?), I opted not to pay for my seat selection. I was left to the tender mercies of the American Airlines auto seat assignment. Mind you, there are 36 rows on this plane...

I was Boarding Group 9 (of 9)!!  Quit judging me lady in row 1 of first class sipping a mimosa.

+This is Andrej Stojakovic’s first go at an NCAA Tournament after two empty seasons at Stanford and California respectively. I fully appreciate him enjoying the moment and I have a feeling he’s going to rise to the moment.

+To that end, I wonder if we might see Stojakovic back in the starting lineup tonight.  While it’s been kind of fun over the past few games when the “Bench Scoring” stat graphic is shown and Illinois is leading 34 to 14 or whatever, but ultimately I think we’re a better team with Stojakovic starting and Jake Davis coming off the bench.

+If you need something to fret over then I offer you the over inflated basketballs controversy.

For a team such as Illinois who relies not only on shooting the three, but also on offensive rebounding, a juiced up super ball bouncing every which way might prove annoying.

+The games today in Greenville are taking place in Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Because I know you were wondering – “Bon Secours” is French for ”Good Help”.

+My “sure to be wrong“ double digit upset candidates for the opening round are Troy over Nebraska, VCU over North Carolina, and the Fighting John Groce’s over Texas Tech. Also, while I don’t think Wisconsin will lose to High Point, that thing is gonna be a shootout. Were I a betting man I would love the over (160) in that one.

+After the Big Ten Tournament loss to Wisconsin, Brad Underwood pushed back on the narrative that his team struggles in close games. He pointed to narrow wins over Texas Tech, Ohio State, and Purdue—games that were tight, even if they didn’t come down to the final possession. He’s not wrong on that note, but an uncomfortable and persistent narrative does linger heading into the tournament: this is a team that will invite opponents back into games. Second half leads of 9 at Michigan State, 12 at home against Wisconsin, 11 at UCLA, and 15 against Wisconsin last Friday make it hard to argue against that notion. Time to shake that label.

+There will be new drapery hung in the rafters of the State Farm Center next fall.  Keaton Wagler earned consensus second team All-American status by being named second team All-American by each of the four major voting outlet (Sporting News; AP; NABC; USBWA).  Even though Brad Underwood told everyone back in October how good this kid was - it’s still the most improbable of stories.  That said, I could think of an epilogue to the story that would make it even more improbable.

+Tomislav Ivisic is shooting just 24%(11/45) from the three point line over the past nine games - which includes five losses. It’s oversimplifying things a great deal, but if he’s even at 30% over that stretch - we likely turn around two or three of those losses. Also, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Keaton Wagler’s efficiency has suffered along with Tomi’s.  With Tomi’s extended shooting slump, there are lighter consequences when defenses help off him to guard Wagler more aggressively.  Tomi is the high tide which lifts this ship.

+While Jake Davis is the Professor Emeritus of Illini hair, David Mirkovic is the runaway winner of “Most Improved ‘Do”.  Over the course of four months, Mirk went from this…

to this…

Carry on Samson.

+Illinois’ offensive rebounding rate on the season:  38.7%. Illinois’ offensive rebounding rates in six of their eight losses:  33% (Alabama); 31% (UConn); 31% (MSU); 28% (Wisconsin); Michigan (34%); Wisconsin-BTT (26%). 

That 38% number has proven to be a pretty good bellweather.

+Although I’m disappointed that Illinois missed out on the opportunity to play the first two rounds of the tournament in St. Louis (just for purely logistical reasons), I’m at least thankful I’m not on my way to Buffalo.  75 degrees all weekend sounds lovely thank you very much.  

+Vegas loves our predictive metrics. Vegas loves our predictive metrics plus Penn being without their leading scorer Ethan Brown (concussion) even more. The line for our game as of this morning was at 25.5. The other 3/14 games? Michigan State -16.5 over North Dakota State. Gonzaga - 21.5 over Kennesaw State. Virginia -18.5 over Wright State.

I think Illinois will play well and cruise this evening but I’m thinking more in the 82-62 neighborhood.

+”Attention ladies and gentlemen, we are now beginning our final descent…”

Cue the CBS (and TNT and TBS and TruTV) music and let’s get this thing rolling. Houston or bust.