Illini Power Rankings: How Special Is This Year? We're About to Find Out.

It is either a curse or a blessing that, when Illinois has a special team, it's pretty obvious. Most schools have a sorta-fluky Final Four appearance in their history: North Carolina State in 2024, Miami (Fla.) in 2023, UCLA in 2021; in the Big Ten, Michigan has had a couple, Tom Izzo got few sorta saggy Michigan State teams in, don't forget that the last time Indiana made the Final Four, they were a five seed and their coach was Mike Davis.

Illini fans do not have these. We have no fluky Final Four teams. Both of our Final Four teams were freaking awesome, from the get-go. The 1988-98 Flying Illini team started 16-0 and didn't lose until Kendall Gill got hurt; the 2004-05 team was a juggernaut from Day One and turned into a downright sensation (and traveling road show) with that defenestration of Chris Paul and then-No. 1 Wake Forest on December 1.

You know, in these troubled times, we must take all solace, comfort and warmth wherever we can find it. So let's watch 2004-era "SportsCenter" highlights of that game together.

Why did all the truly wonderful Illini basketball moments happen before the universal acceptance of HD television? Alas.

The point is, Illini fans are conditioned to always be looking to see if a particular season's team could be That Team. In my lifetime, and your mileage may vary, I think Illinois has had four That Teams:

⚫ 1983-84. This is the Bruce Douglas/Efrem Winters/Doug Altenberger team that won its final six games (and 15 of its last 17), had a No. 2 seed in the tournament and lost that cruel Elite Game at Kentucky (in Rupp Arena) that featured a non-traveling call that cost us the game. I was eight years old, and this was the first thing that made me cry uncontrollably. (This is the only team on this list that I think is even remotely debatable.)

⚫ 1988-89. The Flying Illini team. Sean Higgins, now 57, today sells commercial and residential real estate in Las Vegas, the sort of job I'd expect an evil demagorg  like him to have.

⚫ 2004-05. It has been noted several times this week that the Illini's start to the Big Ten season is the best since this team's, leading to several highlight montages of that team spackled all over Big Ten Network, Peacock and various Fox channels. I have not minded.

⚫ 2020-21. Rest in peace, Sister Jean, you were a force for good in this world. But know that you will still never be forgiven.

That's it. There have been good teams, very good teams, during that span, teams I have truly and deeply loved. (The Elite Eight team of two years ago definitely counts.) But none of those teams had the "oh man I think this team can win the national championship" that the four teams above had. You know it when you see it. That's why those tournament losses--to Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina and that northern Jesuit school that will not be named--hurt so damn much. Those were supposed to be the year. We thought, all year, that they were.

This team, this current team, is excellent. They have the best offense in all of college basketball, but the most encouraging thing about them over the last month has been the improvements they've made on defense since the Nebraska game. That's why they've won eight in a row, and that's why we're getting so excited. That's why I want to believe.

But of those eight wins, only one team--Iowa--is currently in the KenPom Top 51. (They're 20.) Of Illinois' next 10 opponents, only one of them--Northwestern, who is No. 61, clearly getting better and won a very impressive road game just last night--isn't in the top 51.

This Illinois team has the rough contours of a team that can be special: They score like crazy, they're packed with fun personalities, they've got a built-in, easily understood national identity (why yes, I did buy one of these hats) and they have a potential lottery pick about whom I will be rhapsodizing a little bit later.

But we will not know if they are truly special--if they are one of those teams that we believe can win the whole thing, a team we will allow to potentially break our hearts--until we watch them play these next 10 games, culminating in that February 27 home game (on a Friday night!) against Michigan.

These Illini are awesome. But are they That Team? In a month, we will know for sure. I cannot wait to find out.

This is the third installment of my sporadic Illini Power Rankings this year: Here is the first and here is the second. As always, these rankings are ridiculous, uninformed and written primarily as a nervous tic--think of them almost like me lancing a boil. There may be nothing I think about more than the Illinois men's basketball team. My name is Will Leitch, a contributing editor at New York magazine, a columnist at The Washington Post and for The Athletic, national correspondent for MLB.com and author of seven books, including the novels How Lucky, The Time Has Come and Lloyd McNeil’s Last Ride.

I also write a free weekly newsletter about parenthood and living through these tumultuous times that you might enjoy: You can find it here. I am (somehow, still) perhaps best known as being the founder of the late sports website Deadspin, though I’d prefer you think of me as “former Daily Illini sports editor” and "forever Mattoon Green Wave."

As long as you will have me, I will be writing these Power Rankings all year. Go Illini.

13. Kylan Boswell (previously: 3).
If Robert will continue to let me come back, I'll be doing a few more Power Rankings this season, and I suspect the next one will either be before Boswell comes back, or at least very shortly afterward. So let's punt on him and put him 13th: We'll rank him correctly when he returns.

I will say that I've heard a lot about how the Illini are losing Boswell at the exact wrong time, with all these tough games coming up. I'm not sure I agree. Basically, these three tough road games--Purdue, Nebraska and Michigan State--just became house money games. If Illinois loses all three (and I don't think they will), well, they're missing their Senior Leader. But each game they win will count for more in the public consciousness and to national people: Not only did Illinois win, Illinois won without Kylan Boswell!

Also, Boswell does have an unfortunate tendency to chuck up ridiculous 3-pointers out of some sort of I Gotta Bail This Possession Out mindset that I suspect comes from the obligation of being that Senior Leader. Now that we'll need someone else to step up for the next month or so, perhaps he'll no longer deem such shots necessary and can go back to being the defensive lunatic and bowling ball that we need him to be. I'll miss him. We need him back. But I do think this could end up being a good thing.

12, 11. AJ Redd and Blake Fagbemi (previously: 13, 12).
I don't have a ton to say about these guys, so allow me to take this opportunity to reach out to California-based Illini fans and alumni who read this lovely little site:

I'm going to be in Los Angeles the entire week that our gentlemen are out there in February, and I'm planning on going to both the USC and UCLA games. Anybody going? Is there a group? I will need to be among my people. I'm at williamfleitch@yahoo.com. Let me know, LA Illini. I was in Los Angeles for a book event at Book Soup this summer, and I lived in Los Angeles for a year directly after college. You are a wonderful place, Los Angeles, and I am looking forward to watching our Illini win twice there. Lemme know, Angelenos!

10. Jason Jakstys (previously: 11).
Look who it is, it's the guy who got more minutes against Maryland (six) than Mihailo Petrovic has gotten any game since his debut against Southern on December 29. Jakstys is a physically impressive dude--he honestly think he might be more jacked than anyone on the roster--but, as we saw in his six minutes Wednesday, he is good at taking up space, and maybe having a rebound fall in his hands, and hacking a dude or two ... but not much else. We also appear to now know what will inspire Underwood to Break Glass For Jakstys emergency button: Multiple flagrant fouls on one of the Ivisii. I'd have to think that doesn't come up again? One hopes?

9. Mihailo Petrovic (previously: 10).
It is fun to watch him: There is no question about it. Every time he touches the ball--and he's always touching the ball--it feels like something is about to happen ... you can't help but lean forward any time the ball is in his hands.

But that excitement is not production. And his production has been a disappointment--really from the beginning. His defensive woes are well-documented, and they're the obvious reason he's not playing (it was extremely telling that Underwood put Fagbemi and Redd in over him at the end of the Maryland game), but I'm not sure his offense has been all that mind-blowing either. He makes poor shooting decisions, he misses a lot of lay-ups at the rim and even his passes--most of which at least look impressive--tend to be flashier than necessarily what's best for his teammates. He gave a little spark in the Minnesota game, but I think that was more because the Gophers (inexplicably) switched out of their zone as soon as he came in.

I know there is a clamoring among a certain subsect of fans for him to play more, particularly now with Boswell out. But I don't see it. I don't think we're missing much at all, frankly. Look, I love a dude who's 22 and looks 45 with sweet handles and presumably a pack of smokes in his shorts as much as anyone. I lean forward when he enters too. But we may be all wishing on something that isn't there.

8. Brandon Lee (previously: 8)
We're not calling him The Crow yet? It feels like we should be calling him The Crow.

Maybe it'll stick if he gets more playing time. I expect him to do so in the wake of Boswell's injury: He's a far more logical Boswell fill-in than Petrovic, or at least more of what the Illini will actually need with Boswell out. They have plenty of dudes who can score, but not very many dudes with length and defensive intensity. I said this last month, but: Can he be Sencire Harris Lite for the next four weeks? I would absolutely take that.

7. Ben Humrichous (previously: 7).
First off, this entered my brain last week and will not leave. So now it must enter yours, and also never leave.

Yep. This is your life now every time you see him.

Humrichous made two 3-pointers in the Maryland game after a miserable shooting slump, but frankly he's had enough shooting slumps in his Illini career that I now just accept him as a guy who just can't shoot, no matter what he did for a year at Evansville. I don't quite wax rhapsodic about him the way his fiercest supporters do--supporters that include Brad Underwood, it should be said--but his defense and, especially, his rebounding (and his tap-outs) are undeniable. I sorta wish we could Eternal Sunshine-away his thought that he could ever shoot, so he could just focus on the things he has gotten so good at, but I also understand that even the threat of him standing out on the perimeter has its value. But we should probably just all start thinking of his game as Ty Rodgers' game. Which is fine and super useful! But I didn't want Ty Rodgers to shoot either.

Also I will say that my love for Humrichous shot up considerably when I learned he was marrying Adalia McKenzie. Adalia McKenzie rules! I think Adalia McKenzie is a little underappreciated as a bridge player for the women's team, someone who was there for the rough years but helped transition into the current bright ones. (Though it should be noted that she also could not hit 3-pointers.) Congrats, you too. I look forward to a future tailor having to fit Humrichous-McKenzie on the back of an Illini jersey.

6. Jake Davis (previously: 9)
I'll confess: This feels low! Did you know ole' Jake has, according to KenPom, the second-highest offensive rating in all of college basketball! Second! In all of college basketball! There are 365 teams in college basketball!

Sure, his usage rate is super low: If he played more that number would go down, and he, in the wake of Boswell's injury, is about to be playing more. But Davis is shooting 43 percent from 3-point range, he has only two turnovers on the season (that's fewer than Blake Fagbemi!) and he has become weirdly effective on the boards. He's basically the platonic ideal role player. He's still more a seasoning than a side dish, but what a seasoning he has become.

And seriously, if you are not doing so already, please start yelling "Jake Davis!" every time he is about to shoot, you will love it, it will make you happy. Don't worry. You won't distract him. He can't hear you.

5. Tomislav Ivisic (previously: 5)
He's coming along, and I bet this is the last time he's below his brother. It seems like he has weathered the worst of that little slump. It was an understandable slump. He has dealt with injuries and sickness, having his brother show up and do all the things he hasn't really ever done (it's weird how different their games are, no?) and, mostly, adjusting to the fact that David Mirkovic has sort of taken over the role he had in the offense last year. A bit of a downtick should have always been expected.

He has still contributed, even knocking down some huge 3-pointers along the way, and now not only is he starting to integrate himself back in that offense, it feels like his rim protection has improved in the last few games as well. I think he's going to have a huge February. If they beat Purdue on Saturday, he'll be the reason why.

4. Zvonimir Ivisic (previously: 6).
We finally saw the spotty, kinda-out-of-it-sometimes Big Z that Kentucky and Arkansas got used to in the Maryland game, but all told, it's not the end of the world: If you're going to be inconsistent, I'd prefer your bad games be against the worst teams in the Big Ten.

He'll snap out of it and get back to being exactly what we need: A rim protector who, despite an absurd shooting motion (he loves that ball around his knees, even when he's underneath the basket), is as trustworthy a shooter as this team has. I'd rather never see him dribble, though, and if he'd stop randomly falling down for no reason, that'd be great.

3. David Mirkovic (previously: 2).
The key to Mirkovic's success--and, I'd argue, a lot of the team's--is that he has come around to embracing everything he does well and stopped messing around with what he doesn't. I know he can run the break, but he probably shouldn't, and not just because I'm pretty sure everyone else on the team giggles as hard watching the goofy way he runs as I do. What he needs to do, and what he has been doing, is basically be the Michigan State version of Draymond Green: Rebound, be the pivot point for the offense, make yourself a total pest on defense, have hard sharp elbows when you need them (but not so sharp that you pick up a flagrant) and hit shots when you are open. His ability to do all of these things allows everyone else on the offense to do what they're good at.

And he has to be a total pain to play against--it must be so frustrating to deal with every annoying thing Mirkovic does and also see him complain about every call. That would drive me crazy if he played for another team. But he's on our team. Which means all his eccentricities and peculiarities are charming and even helpful. Also I bet he's a blast to party with. I like him more every game. Who wouldn't?

2. Andrej Stojakovic (previously: 4).
This is the guy who has to step up the most in Boswell's absence. On offense, we know what we're getting, though, as we saw against Maryland, it works a lot better when he hits a couple of shots early; it feels like he's rolling downhill the rest of the game when that happens.

But the real key is how much harder he has been working on defense. If you are looking for proof of how good of a coach Underwood actually is--and I don't know why some people are still looking for this, but some are--look at Andrej. He was a scorer, and kinda just a scorer, at Cal, and that was the thought when he got here too. But Underwood saw his length, and his sneaky strength, and challenged him to be a defensive stopper. We are starting to see that now. If you would have told me that Peja's son would be the guy I'd want on Braden Smith three months ago, I'd have thought you were nuts. He's now who I trust the most on him. Andrej had draft buzz heading into the season that has cooled gradually in the wake of Keaton Wagler's rise. Now's the time to get that buzz back.

1. Keaton Wagler (previously: 1).
I have a friend who is a diehard Michigan State fan, and, as you'd expect, he's a traditionalist from the Izzo school. He hates the transfer portal, he hates NIL, he thinks the whole sport is going to hell. Personally, I think if Izzo had embraced the new age of college basketball rather than (impressively) stuck to his guns, and kept winning, my friend would be singing a different tune; it's much easier to be sanctimonious when you're winning.

But anyway, my friend hates Illinois. And the reason he hates Illinois is that he thinks Illinois, more than any other team, is gaming the system by bringing in all these Eastern European professionals, like they're bastardizing the game he loves. (He even got mad about Toni Bilić!) I think my friend is wrong--I would think he was wrong even if Illinois was not doing what Illinois is--but I'll confess, I have very much enjoyed rubbing in his face that the reason Illinois has a chance to win a national championship this year is not because they brought in dudes from Serbia or Croatia or wherever. It's because they did something that any team could have done, something teams have been trying to do for decades: They uncovered a recruit that no one else found, they stole a kid from under everyone else's noses. Illinois is not one of the best teams in the country because Brad Underwood found a bunch of Euro dudes, no matter how cool the jumpsuits look. Illinois is one of the best teams because they saw brilliance--chill, unflappable genius--in a skinny 18-year-old kid with floppy hair from Kansas.

The world is careening out of control. The future is uncertain. I sometimes worry that humanity has gone truly mad.

But then I watch Keaton Wagler play basketball, calmly, like he has already seen it all, that he knows it's all going to turn out OK, and it helps me catch my breath. It makes me believe we might just make it. He is, already, instantly, one of my favorite basketball players ever. I believe in him as much as I believe in anything.

Save us, Keaton. You're the only one who can.

Will Leitch is a columnist for The Athletic, contributing editor at New York Magazine, columnist for The Washington Post, national columnist for MLB, and the founder of the late sports website Deadspin. Subscribe to his free weekly newsletter and buy his novels “How Lucky,” and "The Time Has Come” and Lloyd McNeil’s Last Ride from Harper Books.