Craig Has The Scout - Ohio State 2025

Coming Up

Who: Ohio State Buckeyes

When: 11:00 am – October 11^th, 2025

Where: Home Sweet Home

How: FOX

Opponent Primer:

Head Coach: Ryan Day

Ryan Day is the Ohio State head coach and a man who seems perpetually on the verge of an existential crisis with every loss to his rivals up north. His coaching journey started under OC Chip Kelly at New Hampshire, first as a player, then as the tight ends coach. From there, he bounced to Boston College as a grad assistant, took a detour to Florida under Urban Meyer, then landed at Temple coaching wide receivers for Al Golden. He circled back to Boston College in their peak with Matt Ryan, watched the offense fall apart for a few years, and rejoined Steve Addazio at Temple as offensive coordinator. Then Chip Kelly brought him to the NFL for QB coaching gigs in Philly and San Francisco before Urban Meyer lured him back to the college game in Columbus.

Day’s tenure at Ohio State has been a cocktail of dominance and drama. He owns the highest winning percentage in college football history, a beard that belongs to a Marvel villain, and rage at criticism from senior citizens on national television. He’s built a roster that could win the NFC North, yet somehow keeps tripping over Michigan like it’s a rake in the yard. The expanded playoff is his salvation, a chance to turn his superior depth charts into trophies and silence the heckling from Ann Arbor. All that’s left is for someone to stage an intervention in the shoe polish aisle.

Offensive Style: Pro-Style passing attack grafted on a standard spread

Ohio State’s 2025 offense is a high-octane spread that blends wide-zone and gap run principles with play-action and layered passing concepts designed to create vertical stress and exploit NFL-caliber perimeter matchups; tempo is used selectively as a situational weapon while timing, precision, and isolations drive the passing game and allow the Buckeyes to turn a deep roster into explosive plays.

Brian Hartline is technically Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, which mostly means he gets the title and the paycheck while Ryan Day keeps his hands on the wheel. Hartline stumbled into coaching, he wasn’t planning on it after a solid NFL career. Hartline was hanging around Columbus when his brother roped him into running scout‑team routes, and suddenly the guy who was just killing time became a Quality Control coach. After the firing of Zach Smith in 2018, he took over the receivers room and turned it into a conveyor belt of first‑round picks. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith‑Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. all rolled off the line, while Jameson Williams left town and still cashed in on the same factory stamp. His résumé is short and simple, receivers coach and offensive coordinator. The resume is short but the results are absurd. Day is calling the shots, but Hartline remains the architect of one of college football’s most fearsome talent factories.

Defensive Style: 4-2-5 and 3-4 with Multiple coverages

The Ohio State defense operates out of a base 4-2-5 alignment, which to be honest, is college football's base defense these days. They'll rotate into 3-man and penny fronts. Don't let the vanilla look fool you, they are serving up spicy blitzes and coverages. They want the quarterback's brain to melt in a puddle of indecision pre-snap, which is why safeties are constantly rotating and a defenders are dropping randomly. It's an aggressive, talent-maxing scheme attempting to maximize the speed of the Silver Bullets. They are stacked with five-star athletes and provide every single one of them a chance to play hero ball.

Matt Patricia is the defensive coordinator man tasked with organizing all this defensive mayhem, which is odd because he looks like he should be organizing a homebrew festival. Instead, he’s got a degree in aeronautical engineering and three Super Bowl rings from his time with the Patriots. Though, one always has to wonder about a man with a laminated play sheet and a pencil behind his ear. After a fiery stint as head coach of the Lions, a confusing turn as an offensive play-caller in New England, and a brief stop in Philly, Patricia has landed in Columbus. Now he’s using his NFL experience to turn Ohio State’s roster of blue-chip monsters into a defense that makes opposing offenses wish they’d missed the bus.

Three Things to Watch

1. Julian Sayin average depth of target. The Buckeyes love to isolate receivers on one side while using quick game on the other. Sayin is completing 80% of his passes this season. If Sayin has the easy throws taken away, Illinois may be able to force him into a mistake.

2. Illinois rushing yards. Illinois needs to slow the Ohio State offense down, and the best way to do that is keep it on the sidelines. The Illini need to establish a rushing attack to slow the Patricia blitz scheme down.

3. Explosive plays of 20+ yards. Ohio State has given up five all season. Illinois had seven last week alone. To win, Illinois needs to generate these plays while preventing Ohio State from generating them.

What are they doing!? - Offense

Ohio State’s offense is a design clinic built on zone and gap runs as the foundation, RPOs as the constraint, and a full-field NFL-style passing game powered by NFL-level talent. Nearly every play begins with the same visual frame, blending run action and pass concepts to freeze linebackers and safeties. The result is a quarterback-friendly system that prioritizes accuracy, clean pre-snap reads, and fast post-snap decisions. Efficiency becomes routine because the structure makes it easy to stay on schedule.

Personnel groupings lean heavily on 11 and 12, keeping speed on the field while maintaining formational power. Trips formations are a staple to the wide side, creating leverage advantages in 3-on-3 or 3-on-2 matchups, while the boundary isolates a receiver in one-on-one coverage. Motion and shifts serve as information tools first and explosive creators second, stressing defensive rules and revealing coverage. Ryan Day builds route combinations that give the quarterback answers for every coverage shell, whether it is man, Cover 2, Cover 3, or Cover 4. The offense looks simple because it repeats familiar pictures, then punishes hesitation once the defense commits. The goal is to stay balanced, force the defense to show its hand, and generate chunk plays with ruthless consistency.

Julian Sayin is the latest star quarterback at Ohio State. Sayin started his college career as an early enrollee at Alabama before transferring and spending last season as a backup in Columbus. Now in the starting role, Sayin stands out for his elite accuracy and sharp pocket processing. He is thriving on clean pre-snap reads and full-field progressions in their NFL-style concepts. His mobility allows him to extend plays when protection breaks down. While he lacks prototypical size and top-tier arm strength, his ceiling changes the math for the entire offense. He still shows occasional timing issues in tight windows, but the foundation is clear, this is a quarterback built to win.

Sayin is throwing to arguably the best wideout duo in the country. Jeremiah Smith came to Ohio State with high expectations and is meeting them by putting up elite production with smooth route-running, sudden separation, strong catch radius, basically forcing a defense to dedicate a defender just to praying. Opposite him, Carnell Tate is emerging as the true 1A, a high-end size/speed guy who can run the vertical routes and demand boundary respect. They’ve combined for about 900 yards and ten scores, which, if my back-of-the-envelope calculations are correct, is a lot. Toss in Brandon Inniss, a reliable separator in the slot, and a pair of move-tight ends in Max Klare (the YAC threat from Purdue) and Jelani Thurman (the flex H-back with a pro profile), and you have a positional group that dictates coverage and turns defensive coordinators into stressed-out messes.

The running back room is built to complement that passing power, a three-headed attack that feeds the pro-style offense. The pre-season pecking order was instantly thrown into chaos when freshman Bo Jackson flashed home-run ability and elite efficiency, vaulting past opening day starter C.J. Donaldson. Donaldson, a powerful, physical transfer from West Virginia, now settles into a crucial role as the short-yardage and reliable between the tackles option, a great Plan B for when you just need three yards. Jackson is a high-ceiling three-down star if he can figure out pass-blocking, while James Peoples is the steady, pro-style third option who sustains drives and catches balls out of the backfield.

Up front, the offensive line has solidified after some early-season questions. Center Carson Hinzman, the 2023 starter who they recruited over last year, has settled down into an elite interior presence. He’s flanked by Luke Montgomery, a prototypical road-grader guard who thrives in the zone-blocking scheme's combo looks. The weakness is at the other guard spot with Tegra Tshabola, a better gap-scheme fit who grades out on the level of a decent Big Ten starter akin to Brandon Henderson. Finally, the tackle spots, a preseason concern, have been surprisingly good, led by left tackle Austin Siereveld, who has the base and agility of a guard but the length of a tackle. Right tackle Phillip Daniels, a Minnesota transfer, is a violent, experienced player who is likely a better pro guard, but he’s excelling, which is more than you can say for a lot of lines this deep into the season. The depth is top notch as well, which is just the final insult to opposing defensive lines.

Ohio State’s run game starts with gap blocking and has leaned heavily into DUO this season, a shift from the Chip Kelly-style zone emphasis. The offensive line has been dominant, especially on double teams and second-level climbs.

The switch from Donaldson to Jackson at running back helped clean up the issues that showed up against Texas. Like USC and Purdue, the Buckeyes pair DUO with play-action reads to bait linebackers and open up explosive shots downfield.

Counters are another staple. While Ohio State isn’t quite as lethal with the counter as USC, they’ve got better backs running it. One wrinkle this year is their preference for the GY counter, pulling the guard and tight end out of two-tight end sets.

They’ll use different alignments for the tight ends, but have one on each side. The play stresses gap integrity and sets up clean angles.

There’s also an RPO tag built into the structure.

When Jeremiah Smith is isolated on the boundary, the counter-RPO becomes a cheat code. Sayin gets a clean read, delivers the ball quickly, and Smith gets space to work. It’s a run-first look that turns into a high-efficiency passing play the moment the defense hesitates.

Ohio State has a few versions of a toss sweep as well they have been pulling out this year. I’ve seen it with Donaldson mainly, but Jackson is the more dangerous option.

Here the Buckeyes have Jackson in an orbit motion and get him the ball with lead blockers pulling in front and opening a crease for him to hit. Jackson is a load to bring down once he’s at speed.

Ohio State's 2025 offense has incorporated the quarterback bootleg primarily as a misdirection tool, leveraging the threat of their running backs to draw linebackers and open up their elite receivers.

The quick sprint outs they like to run are damn near impossible to defend for teams utilizing any type of trail coverage. Playing man against the Buckeyes consistently is a fool’s errand so teams look to sit in soft zones to prevent big plays. Ohio State uses the rollout to out-athlete opponents horizontally to open a big vertical crease.

Formationally, they’ll move to trips like this to get a numbers advantage on the play side scheming open one of the receivers. Finally, the Buckeyes will use rub routes to spring the athletes on the edges of an opponent’s offense.

This play was designed for the TE Klare, but the coverage left Tate as the open receiver.  This strategy is highly effective in exploiting defenses that overcommit to the run, creating simplified throws for the quarterback in the flat or down the sideline.

Washington gave Julian Sayin trouble by scrambling his reads and muddying the picture. Ohio State got into its preferred Trips look, but a little pressure up the middle sent Sayin drifting instead of stepping up.

Sayin missed two open receivers, including Max Klare on the crossing route underneath. The play was designed to clear out with Jeremiah Smith and hit Carnell Tate on the post, but Sayin’s patience broke down. Illinois tends to rush straight through blockers rather than disengaging, which won’t be enough this weekend. They’ll need to unstick themselves and get Sayin off his spot if they want him missing throws.

Ohio State moves Smith all over the formation to prevent bracket coverage. One simple rule: if he starts in the backfield, he’s getting the ball.

On the Trips Bubble, the Buckeyes set up a screen with cross-blocking from the outside receivers, creating a clean seam for Smith to get vertical. Washington got lucky when Smith ran into the back of Brandon Inniss.

The Buckeyes also lean on route combinations that force defenses to declare coverage. One favorite is the Switch concept out of 2x2. The outside receiver releases inside on a slant while the slot releases outside, creating a natural read for Sayin.

If the corner follows, it’s man. If he sits, it’s zone. Against Washington’s Cover 3, Smith found the soft spot and Sayin hit him. Illinois will see plenty of Switch this weekend, and their linebackers are vulnerable to defending the Hook area in zone.

Ohio State’s offense is less a playbook and more a magic trick that keeps looping the same setup until you finally blink. The run game forms the base, RPOs are the sleight of hand, and then, ta‑da, the NFL passing game drops the hammer. Nearly every snap looks the same at first, which is the point: linebackers freeze, safeties hesitate, and Julian Sayin gets to work in a system that makes efficiency feel inevitable. He’s not a prototypical NFL QB, but he is ruthlessly accurate, good with his reads, and mobile enough to buy time when the pocket frays. Add in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who are the best receiver duo in the country, plus Brandon Inniss in the slot with tight ends who can both move and maul, and you’ve got an offense that doesn’t just stress defenses, it punishes them.

The run game is the other half of the trick, and it’s just as mean. The Buckeyes have leaned into DUO, hammering double teams and climbing to the second level, then pairing it with play‑action to spring explosives. Freshman Bo Jackson has established himself at the top of the line in the backfield rotation, giving Ohio State a home‑run threat to pair with C.J. Donaldson’s short‑yardage power and James Peoples’ steady reliability. Counters, toss sweeps, and RPO tags keep defenses guessing, while the offensive line has settled into a balanced unit that can bully or finesse depending on the call. Even when Washington managed to rattle Sayin with pressure, the Buckeyes still found ways to scheme open shots. Illinois will try to replicate that by getting him off his spot, but with this much talent and this much structure, hesitation is all Ohio State needs to turn a simple look into a big play.

What are they doing!? - Defense

Ohio State’s defense under Matt Patricia has become a masterclass in organized havoc. It is built on NFL principles and powered by elite talent, it’s a unit defined by versatility, disguise, and relentless execution. Patricia’s arrival brought a wider menu of fronts and personnel packages vs. Jim Knowles, expanding far beyond the base 4-2-5. The Buckeyes now deploy Diamond and Penny looks with ease, using five-man fronts and hybrid alignments to choke off inside zone runs and force offenses into predictable third-and-long situations. It’s a system that doesn’t just adjust, it dictates.

Through five games, the results have been emphatic. Despite replacing eight starters, Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than nine points in a single contest. Patricia’s defense thrives on cohesion and discipline, especially against the run, where spill techniques and simulated pressures funnel ballcarriers into dead ends. Safeties like Caleb Downs and linebackers like Arvell Reese aren’t locked into roles, they’re deployed based on skill set and situation, creating constant uncertainty for opposing quarterbacks. The Buckeyes aren’t just winning, they’re controlling games and doing it with a defense that’s as smart as it is physical.

Ohio State’s defensive success hinges on two core ideas: personnel flexibility and pre-snap disguise. Patricia doesn’t see positions, he sees roles. Players learn a handful of repeatable actions, then execute them from different alignments. That’s how an All-World safety like Caleb Downs ends up in the box, at nickel, or deep, depending on the call. The defense shifts seamlessly between a base 4-2-5, three-linebacker sets, and the Diamond front, all without substituting. The result is that offenses rarely get a clean read before the snap.

Simulated pressures and disguised coverages take the confusion further. Patricia shows five or six rushers, then drops a linebacker or end into coverage, baiting protection schemes and speeding up quarterback decisions. He also loves to delay blitz a linebacker after they look like they are dropping into coverage. Against run-heavy teams, odd fronts clog the middle while coverage shells rotate post-snap between man, zone, and match. It’s a system built to look complicated to the offense and simple to the defense. Players get clarity. Quarterbacks get chaos.

It starts up front with Larry Johnson’s defensive line room, which reads like a coach’s dream: long, athletic, and built to rotate. Johnson still trusts his technique-first philosophy and cycles bodies constantly, but it’s clear Matt Patricia’s influence has expanded the blueprint. The Buckeyes aren’t locked into four down linemen anymore, they’re deploying hybrid fronts and leaning into versatility. On the edge, Caden Curry leads the way with 17 tackles, 5 sacks, and 11 hurries, winning with violent hands and relentless motor. Kenyatta Jackson Jr. sets the edge and flashes downhill burst, while Beau Atkinson offers inside-out flexibility and consistent pressure. Will Smith Jr. is the developmental piece with bend and chase traits, showing flashes as a rotational rusher.

Inside, Kayden McDonald, Tywone Malone Jr., and Eddrick Houston give Ohio State a physical, mobile core that can control gaps and collapse pockets. McDonald has leveled up into a tone-setter, stacking 12 tackles and winning double teams with power and leverage. Malone, a transfer from Ole Miss, brings twitch and reach, thriving on stunts and twists with 3 hurries to his name. Houston is lighter but moves well laterally, offering upside as a disruptive interior piece. Together, the group gives Patricia the tools to run Diamond fronts, disguise pressure, and keep fresh legs attacking the line of scrimmage. It’s not just depth, it’s deployment.

Ohio State’s linebackers are built for Patricia’s position-flex blueprint: fast, versatile, and ready to move. Sonny Styles, once a top safety recruit, now plays as the Buckeyes’ coverage-first Will and might be the most valuable defender on the roster. His length and speed let him erase short throws and crash run lanes from the slot or box. Peyton Pierce is the downhill hammer with 16 tackles and sideline-to-sideline range, steady against the run and sharpening his coverage game. Arvell Reese handles the Mike role in base and becomes a blitz weapon in sub-packages, already racking up 5 hurries with a burst that creates mismatches.

The back-ups are just as deadly. Freshman Riley Pettijohn has flashed early, showing pursuit speed and range that hint at future stardom. C.J. Hicks, a former five-star, is the designated rush end in specialty sets, bringing edge pressure and depth to Patricia’s situational packages. Together, the group blends experience and upside, giving Ohio State the flexibility to disguise fronts, rotate coverage shells, and send pressure from anywhere. It’s not just a linebacker room, it’s a toolkit.

Ohio State’s secondary is anchored by Caleb Downs, the Alabama transfer who has become the Buckeyes’ all-purpose Mr. Everything. He lines up deep, in the box, or over the slot, using elite instincts and range to shut down run lanes and short throws. Jaylen McClain adds coverage consistency and sharp processing as a reliable every-down safety. Malik Hartford brings physicality near the line of scrimmage and wins at the catch point. Downs remains the centerpiece, but the depth behind him gives Matt Patricia the flexibility to rotate responsibilities and disguise coverage without tipping anything before the snap.

At corner, the Buckeyes rely on length, discipline, and recovery speed. Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr. handle the outside with press-man tools and improving ball skills. Devin Sanchez is a freshman being worked into the rotation. Lorenzo Styles Jr. fits naturally at nickel, combining linebacker-level run support with smooth man coverage. Patricia’s scheme asks these defensive backs to shift between man, zone, and match coverage while keeping the quarterback guessing. Option routes can still cause problems, but when the unit is locked in, it does more than cover, it controls.

Early in the game against Washington, the Huskies went straight at Ohio State’s defensive front and found some success. On this snap, the Washington offensive line moved the line of scrimmage a full three yards, winning man-on-man battles and challenging the Buckeyes physically.

Even with the push, Eddrick Houston’s relentless motor allowed him to slip free and make the tackle. Ohio State’s linebackers can get caught in the wash, so if Illinois can generate movement with double teams, they’ll have a shot at running inside against the Buckeyes’ three-man front. But when Ohio State shifted into its Penny package against gap schemes, the results flipped.

Arvell Reese hid from the blockers and stopped the play at the line of scrimmage. Washington’s slow-developing counter gave the Buckeye defensive line time to penetrate, throwing off the timing and leaving Reese untouched. Every Buckeye defender but one won his matchup. If Illinois wants to run gap, they’ll need to speed things up and lean on DUO to create cleaner angles

Washington also utilized double-tight formations and attacked Ohio State’s aggressive front with rollouts and misdirection. The Buckeyes showed their classic 4-2-5 Cover 4 shell, a look they’ve recruited to for years, but the Huskies used their slot receiver to create open throwing lanes.

Ohio State tends to sit soft in Cover 4 when the run threat is still alive, and Minnesota exploited that last week by targeting Igbinosun on the perimeter. The Buckeyes were content to give up underneath gains to prevent explosive plays.

When Ohio State shifted to a three-man front, they rotated between single-high safety and Cover 3 shells, often disguising the look as two-high pre-snap.

Caleb Downs is an incredible athlete. He’s incredibly effective near the line of scrimmage, is playing deep safety here and covered the middle after starting on the play-side hash. On the next snap, Washington hit a play-action wrinkle that baited Arvell Reese into overplaying the run.

Downs nearly chased it down from the opposite hash, but the Huskies had already put the Buckeyes into conflict. They reached the red zone three times against Ohio State’s defense but didn’t punch it into the end zone and it forced them into a one-dimensional game.

Ohio State likes to move its defensive line around and use stunts to take advantage of its athleticism up front.

The Buckeyes show off their speed here, chasing down a tunnel screen with ease. They rely on soft coverage to keep plays in front and then close space quickly with elite open-field tackling. One underrated strength of this defense is how well they tackle in space. Whether in four-man fronts or Penny packages, Ohio State uses the same personnel and simply shifts them into new alignments. That versatility gives Matt Patricia a wide range of options and keeps offenses guessing.

Patricia wants his defense to morph throughout the game. He’s not interested in lining up the same formation every snap. Instead, he wants the Buckeyes to rotate looks and personnel to keep the offense guessing. The Penny front morphs into a Diamond, the Diamond shifts into a 4-3, and the same eleven defenders keep showing up in new roles. Edge players change posture, linebackers alternate between rushing and dropping, and safeties like Caleb Downs rotate through three positions in three plays.

This isn’t just versatility, it’s calculated disguise. Simulated pressures bait quarterbacks into bad reads, while spill technique reroutes runners into the arms of defenders who know what’s coming. The entire structure is designed to confuse, constrict, and collapse. Patricia will be looking to make Altmyer hesitate just long enough for Ohio State to rack up sacks and tackles for loss.

What does it mean?

This game boils down to the fundamentals: efficiency, finishing drives, and turnover avoidance. If the more talented team executes those basics, the math says they win by multiple scores. That’s not dominance, it’s just the model working as Ryan Day designed it. Ohio State doesn’t need to be flashy, just ruthlessly clean. Illinois, meanwhile, ranks among the top offenses in the country but has been living on explosives. The Buckeyes’ need to break that rhythm. That starts in the trenches, where Ohio State’s defensive front can force Illinois off schedule and into third-and-long. The Buckeyes lead the nation in third-down Havoc Rate, and they’ll challenge Illinois to sustain drives and not let the Illini get comfortable.

On offense, Ohio State’s job is simple: keep Julian Sayin upright and finish what they start. Negative plays wreck Success Rate, and wrecked Success Rate is how you let a team like Illinois hang around. Clean offense is efficient offense, and efficiency is how you bury teams before they realize what’s happening. Drives that cross the opponent’s 40 need to end in points, not turnovers. Red-zone giveaways are game-flippers, and Illinois has just enough defensive Havoc to make that a real threat if the Buckeyes get sloppy.

The volatility factors, field position and turnovers, are real. They’re also chaos agents. Illinois needs splash plays on special teams and a few generous mistakes to tilt the field. Ohio State doesn’t need fireworks. They need to be brutally efficient. Keep the ball, stay on schedule, and let the math do the dirty work.

For Illinois to Win:

Illinois needs to win the chaos. That means winning volatility via special teams and turnovers, the two great equalizers of college football. The Illini have one of the best special teams units in the country, and they’ll need it to flip field position, steal hidden yards, and shrink the talent gap. The other piece is the Turnover Fairy, who’s been generous to Illinois all year. If she shows up in Champaign wearing orange and blue, Illinois has a shot. These are the swing factors that tilt close games, and they’re the clearest path to overcoming Ohio State’s roster advantage.

On offense, Illinois has to play keep-away. Long, clock-chewing drives that end in touchdowns aren’t just helpful, they’re essential. Field Goals don’t win football games. Additionally, the fewer possessions Ohio State gets, the fewer chances they have to revert to their usual dominance. That means winning early downs, converting third-and-shorts, and hitting a few explosives to avoid testing the Buckeyes’ red zone defense, which has been nearly impenetrable. On defense, Illinois has to stay clean: no drive-extending penalties, no busted coverages, and elite open field tackling on third down. They’ll need to confuse the Buckeyes with post-snap movement, pick their blitz spots wisely, and force Julian Sayin to throw off-platform. Illinois needs all that and to keep the Turnover Fairy close for a victory.

For Ohio State to Win:

The blueprint for how a more talented team beats a less talented one isn’t exactly a mystery: lean on your physical advantage and don’t give the ball away. It’s the football equivalent of a financial advisor telling you to “buy low, sell high.” For Ohio State, that starts in the trenches. Defensively, the Buckeyes need to crack Illinois’ run game in half, collapse the line, and trap the Illini in a cycle of third-and-long. That’s how you turn a game into a slow bleed, one stalled drive at a time.

Offensively, the Buckeyes don’t need fireworks. They need clean pockets, no three and outs, and drives that end in points. If they stay turnover-free and keep the chains moving, Illinois’ secondary won’t have the depth or coverage tools to hold up. Efficiency is the weapon here, not flash, not tempo, just a steady march that turns Illinois’ defense into a tired, reactive unit. Do that, and the scoreboard takes care of itself.

Illinois +14.5

Ohio State sitting as a two-touchdown favorite feels like a hedge against something Vegas can’t quite pin down. Illinois has shown it can score, and yet the Buckeyes haven’t allowed more than nine points all season. If you’re betting the over, you’re betting that Illinois does what no one else has: solve the Buckeyes defense and make the game relatively pointsy. If it’s the under, then Ohio State’s defense has done what it always does by grinding the Illini down, squeezing the clock, and leaving the scoreboard looking like a Big Ten rock fight Kirk Ferentz would be proud to behold.

There’s a case for Illinois to cover, built on recent offensive surges, matchup quirks, and Bret Bielema’s knack for keeping games closer than Vegas expects. A few long drives, a special teams swing, one well-timed turnover, is all it takes to stay inside the number. But Illinois has been feeling love from the turnover fairy all season, and to pull this off they’ll need more than a wink and a kiss. They’ll need embarrassing levels of PDA from her. I’m not banking on that happening. Give me the Buckeyes to cover.

YTD Against the Spread:

4-2