Back & Forth - 12-1 Illini Women's Basketball

These things usually have a "what if I just turned this into an article on the site?" start. That's what happened with Craig Has The Scout. Craig was already writing a scout of our opponents and emailing it to friends - why not just publish it on the site (and pay him a little money for it).

It's the same with this. Former Illini SID Derek Neal will sometimes text me a nugget from a spreadsheet he keeps for each season of women's basketball. If he's sharing this with a few people here and there, why not share it with everyone (and pay him a little money for it)? That's how this Back & Forth came to be.

You know the drill here. I ask questions, the people who understand it better than me answer. So everyone welcome Derek and his women's basketball stat-hounding. Starting with this question I sent him:

So I'm going to let you frame this for me. Shauna Green's young team is now 12-1 and has road wins at Florida State, Missouri and Purdue.. In the Big Ten opener, the ladies beat Indiana by 21. I was expecting a rough November/December with only one starter returning (that's just my default for every team), but the results have been solid so far. 

Still, I know from our texts that we haven't really been tested yet. You know this way better than me, so please frame all of this. Twelve wins has already eclipsed several Nancy Fahey seasons and it's December. But big tests await in the B1G. How should we feel? 

In short, I feel GREAT about the season thus far. Sitting at 12-1, 2-0, at this point in the season, especially knowing how bad things were for two decades pre-Shauna Green Era, I couldn’t ask for much better. There are some battle scars for followers of this program, similar to longtime Illini football fans, where it was so bad for so long that I’m not going to take 12-1 for granted, ever. 

So far, we’ve seen that Berry Wallace has made the sophomore leap and has become the star you expect when you sign a McDonald's All-American. Gretchen Dolan is healthy and back to getting buckets. Maddie Webber is the impact transfer we hoped she'd be. And Cearah Parchment and Destiny Jackson are the real deal as true-freshmen - probably better than we could have hoped for at this point (similar to a couple of freshmen on Underwood's squad). 

The team wins with defense, effort, and getting points from the free throw line, in terms of both quantity, 17.3 FT makes per game (13th in the nation, 2nd in B1G) and quality, Illini are shooting a blistering 82.7% from the stripe – 1st in the nation(!). 

I agree with Heath that this team is ahead of schedule, especially given what was lost from last season and the preseason question marks we had about the youth on this roster (no seniors). This team is fun to watch, no doubt, and has taken care of business against what has been a pretty underwhelming schedule so far. 

Here's a look at the Illini’s NCAA Tournament resume heading into 2026: 

Record: 12-1, 2-0 B1G
NET: 37
Torvik: 38
HerHoops: 30
Overall strength of schedule: 272
Non-conference SOS: 309

Wins by Quad:
Quad 1: 0-0
Quad 2: 1-0 – W @Purdue (NET 60)
Quads 3/4: 11-1 – L @Oregon St. (NET 90)

So, yes, a lot to be encouraged about so far, but still a lot left to prove with a loaded B1G slate coming up.

Seeing only one Quad 1 or Quad 2 games so far leads my brain into certain seasons I've written about in the past (for football and basketball) where we hadn't really played anybody in the non-conference and then conference play was a big wake-up call. I'm thinking specifically about 2011 football (6-0 start but it was four non-conference games plus Northwestern and Indiana) or maybe 2014-15 basketball (won that Las Vegas tournament to move into the rankings but it wasn't even going to be an NCAA Tournament season). At what point will we know that it's not that? 

And I'm not saying that I expect an NCAA Tournament appearance and there's this impending moment where the season falls apart once the schedule gets tougher. I just need some framework here.

I see where you’re coming from. While the results have been impressive, the schedule has been dreadful up to this point. I’ve seen some people frustrated at the lack of national respect for a 12-1 team (just a handful of top 25 votes in the most recent AP poll). So why are the Illini getting more love? 

The answer is simple…the schedule. The numbers above bear repeating: 309 non-conference strength of schedule, zero Quad 1 games and just one Quad 2 game so far (@Purdue, which probably will not age well). 

Even the best non-conference wins have turned out to be not-so-good on paper: 

• Florida State is 5-9 and is currently #113 in the Net rankings
• Missouri is #92 in the Net rankings
• Oregon State, the only loss, is #80 in the Net and is a Quad 3 loss (almost a Quad 2)
• And the first 2 B1G opponents (Indiana and Purdue) are both outside the top-50 and both are expected to be in the bottom third of the league. 

So, where do the Illini stand? I took some inspiration from your football “nerdstats” and put together a women’s hoops version. The three metrics included are the NCAA NET rankings, Bart Torvik’s T-rank, and HerHoop Stats rankings.  

A few things stand out to me from that table: 

• Illinois’ average national rank of 35.0 is pretty good and puts them solidly in the NCAA tournament at the moment (ESPN’s Charlie Creme has the Illini as an 9-seed in his latest bracket). 
• The Big Ten is absolutely loaded. Illinois’ Nerdstats average puts them 12th in league. 
• There look to be some tiers:
  • Elite: UCLA, Michigan, Maryland
  • Top 4 seed contenders: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, USC
  • Solid NCAA Teams: Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Ohio State, Illinois
  • Bubble: Indiana
  • Postseason longshots: Purdue, Wisconsin, Penn State
  • No Chance: Rutgers, Northwestern

As good as 12-1 has been, and as much as the Illini have improved their statistical projections so far, there is still a long way to climb. They’ll have plenty of chances to do that…soon.

OK, so that will be my final question. You know these things way better than I do, so set it all up for me.

This is still an Illini team that lost basically everyone last season. So I guess I'm asking for some bellwether games where we really get an idea of what kind of team this is. As of the moment I'm writing this, there are eight ranked teams in the Big Ten with several of them on the January schedule. So what's the best way for me to navigate the upcoming schedule toughness? 

As for “bellwether” games, the first “big” game to point to is Maryland later today. It will be the first “prove it” game of the season when seventh-ranked, undefeated Maryland comes to State Farm Center on New Years Day. It has all the makings a “we’re for real” type of statement game like the 2023 New Years Day win over #12 Iowa and Caitlin Clark. Get there if you can. The holiday game crowds are usually hyped as people are looking for things to do after a week of sitting at home. 

The Maryland game kicks off an absolutely stacked January in which six of the eight games are against currently ranked teams, including three AP top 7 opponents (what?!?).  

Here’s the January slate: 

1/1 vs. #7 Maryland
1/4 at #24 Michigan State
1/7 vs. #19 Ohio State
1/11 at Penn State
1/15 at #6 Michigan
1/18 vs. Northwestern
1/24 at #20 Nebraska
1/28 vs. #4 UCLA 

We’ll know a lot more about how “for real” this team is in the next month. And I know I’ll have fun watching this young group and finding out along with the rest of Illini nation!